As the year draws to a close it is impossible to look back and suggest 2011 has been anything other than a momentous year…
It is equally true to say that only a few of the events of the year are, actually, truly over.
So, what will 2012 bring?
* politicians (especially in Europe) and high street shopping ‘gurus’ – but not most bankers – will begin to realise that the paradigm in which they have previously existed is no longer relevant
* the eurozone will reduce to a rump of nations at best
* the uprisings of the ‘Arab Spring’ will continue – and similar unrest will spread throughout other countries who continue to oppress their people – and even those who just take their people’s compliance for granted!
* there will also be widespread social unrest throughout former eurozone countries as their economies re-adjust
* growth in India, China, Indonesia and other developing nations will reduce, with serious economic implications for those economies relying on providing commodoties to fuel growth- Australia, Brazil, Russia
* 70% chance that the coalition in Britain will fail, bringing on elections in which the Conservatives will win an outright majority
* the NHS will continue to muddle on – forever in a state of crisis brought on by being too big and unwieldy… and no-one will have the courage to do what needs to be done to fix the situation
* the Olympics!
Your predictions?
Cheers,
Gen
Those are some interesting brave predictions Gen and I expect several of them will come true. I wouldn’t refute any outright but I do wonder if the conservatives would win if the coalition failed. I think the disaffected might go to Labour rather than giving the vote to the party that see as having contributed to its downfall. I guess I really think the coalition will probably muddle through (like the NHS) but to me its survival depends on whether it comes up with anything brave and creative to help grow the economy, like stimulus for science, manufacturing and small business and the right education to underpin it all. We need a more balanced portfolio than we have now and a better educated workforce for a sustainable future. The coalition is starting to sound a bit like a broken record blaming the last government for everything and pretty soon people are going to run out of patience. Anyway, Happy Christmas and New Year and thanks for the food for thought!
By: Sarah Lafferty (@ladylaff) on December 21, 2011
at 13:25
Thanks @ladylaff, for your thoughts – if it comes to an election there will definitely be some leakage to the Labour Party – but they are not exactly setting themselves up as a credible alternate government at the moment, so my thinking is the Conservatives would win… “Blame” for position the Conservatives inherited, is, I suspect, rightly placed on the US / UK / European / Western / 1st World governments of the late ’70s / early ’80s – but, in reality, bubbles such as the one we experienced recently are a feature of world history – a mistaken belief that the ‘good times’ would last forever. As history has proven, time and again, recovery from such massive downturns typically take at least 5-10 years to just get going… so, it is still very early days…
In terms of growth, I’m thinking on that as a topic for a new blog – growth is an interesting measure and is, possibly, not the most appropriate one for the times we are entering… or, at best, it should be considered alongside other measures.
By: Build Business Value on December 22, 2011
at 08:19